Demba Ba at Chelsea

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Demba Ba at Chelsea

@shots_on_target
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Just want to get soem thoughts down on Demba Ba's potential stats/ouptut with his move to Chelsea.

Shot Share
At Newcastle he profited from being the focus of their attack, having a 33% share of their shots (SoT&SiB).  This is a league high (besides from Lukaku).  Other notable lead shooter are Fletcher 24%, Berbatov 24%, even Suarez is only 26% (his long range & off target shots are quite high though!).  The average for league strikers is 20%.  RVP has 22%.  Rooney 18%.

Converstion Rate
I think Ba had something like a 40% conversion rate for Newcastle first half of last season playing up front.  This year he's managed about 36%, right in line with the league average for leading strikers. RVP 40%, Defoe 33%, Aguero 32%, Berbatov 37%, Kone 33%, Suarez 38%.  

From the above then it would seem Ba's excellent scoring rate this year is more about his large slice of Newcastle's Pie rather than some kind of superhuman ability to find the back of the net.  I give him a ranking of 23 goals/season.  

Torres's stats for Chelsea this year - 35% conversion, 18% share of shots.  Similar conversion to Ba but almost half as many opportunites from his team.  Torres gets a ranking of 13 goals/season.

Chelsea are a better team of course, but only just in terms of shots stats...
CHE Avg. S/90 = 16, SiB = 8, SoT = 5.3  G = 2.0
NEW       S/90 = 15, SiB = 7.5 SoT = 5.0  G = 1.2

The difference in goals scored for Newcastle is probably becasue no-one else in their team is any good, or is given the right chances to score, as opposed to Chelsea who have goalscorers galore in Mata, Lampard and Hazard.  

One way to evaluating Ba's impact at Chelsea would be to simply give Ba Torres' share of Chelsea's shots but use Ba's conversion rate - this would give Ba a season ranking of 13 goals, v.close to Torres really.

Ba's high share of shots for Newcastle though could be partly down to his movement in the box and skill as a forward.  I think it's more of a team thing though, than a player thing.  Cisse also had "all the shots" last season when he was up front for NEW and Ba's monopoly ended.  But, let's assume Torres has lost it and is not able to get himself shooting opportunities, and assume Ba takes his Newcastle shot share to Chelsea.
He'd be in line for 33% * 5.3 * 36% =  0.6 goals/90 or 24 goals/season.

This would be great for Ba but would it not mean Mata has less shots (currently has a share of 16%) and Hazard (11%).  Another scenario is Ba's place in the team increases Chelsea overall shot count per game.  Possibly.  City & Tottenham currently lead Sot/game with 6.2, United on 5.9.  Ba would get an extra 4 goals if Chelsea improved to the ~6SoT/90 level.  

So, time to wind up the waffle.

I can't see Ba improving Chelsea as an attacking unit overall - i.e. creating more chances per game.  I can see him getting a slightly larger share of shots than Torres' low share, but not to the extent he enjoyed at Newcastle, who I believe focus their attacks through a central striker, so I'd give Ba an average shot share of around 24% (same as Fletcher & RVP).  Ba's conversion rate should maintain around the 35% average level.

If Ba played all the remaining games this season I'd expect him to score:

17 games X 5.3 SoT x 24% share x 35% conversion = 7 to 8 goals, if he plays all the games.  

Appreciate any feedback.


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Re: Demba Ba at Chelsea

@shots_on_target
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And for reference here is a chart showing Chelsea's Shots on Target trend, so they aren't in blistering form...

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Re: Demba Ba at Chelsea

SuperGrover
Agreed on all counts.  I think he will be a solid per minute player, but he won't be a big enough threat to justify the inevitable rotation.
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Re: Demba Ba at Chelsea

@shots_on_target
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http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/how-well-do-individual-scoring-rates.html?m=1

Interesting article here showing a trend between how many goals strikers score when moving between low and high scoring clubs. Key message is players who score high percent for a low scoring club have a reduced percentage of shots at a bigger club£ backs up my above post abput Ba's prospects.