SUN 0.89 - 0.98 WBA
WIG 2.08 - 0.85 RDG
EVE 2.93 - 0.98 NOR
MUN 3.06 - 0.74 QPR
STO 1.72 - 1.02 FUL
AVL 1.21 - 1.18 ARS
SWA 1.48 - 1.17 LIV
SOT 1.89 - 1.19 NEW
TOT 1.80 - 0.81 WHU
CHE 1.37 - 1.33 MCI
Lots of teams predicted between 1 and 0.8 teetering on the edge of a shutout or a single goal scored. Everton and Man U. looks like the clear big scorers with Wigan possibly good for a couple against a porous Reading side.
And played the last 30 minutes with only 10 men after Pienaar got sent off. They still got 16 total shots and 10 in the box.
Having watched Everton a ton, I can say the Fellaini is important, but they are still an elite attacking squad without him. If they can get Mirallas back I wouldn't worry too much. That looks like a possibility.
Fair point about the red card. Don't see Everton having much trouble against Norwich.
Here are my predictions
EVE 2.6 1.0 NOR 2-0
MUN 2.3 0.8 QPR 2-0
AVL 2.2 0.9 ARS 2-1 (blimey)
SWA 1.6 2.2 LIV 1-2
STO 0.9 0.9 FUL 1-1
SOU 0.9 1.7 NEW 0-1
TOT 1.3 1.4 WBA 1-1
CHE 2.6 2.5 MCI 2-2
WIG 0.9 1.7 RDG 0-1 (blimey also)
SUN 0.2 1.5 WBA 0-1 (slight blime)
I've incorporated a little bit of the StrikeRate parameter for this to bias the models goal conversion, would have had 8 0ut of 10 results last week if used it, so here goes. This StrikeRate is what gives Villa the win over Arsenal - ability to hit Arsenal very direct.
So you are saying Arsenal's strike rate against is pretty high? I am guessing that is due to an inordinate number of defensive errors this season. Opta has them with the highest number of defensive errors and errors leading to goal. It also shows in the number of Big Chances allowed per shot in box. Typically there is a correlation between shots in the box and big chances. It's not a great one, but the scatter plot certainly implies a relationship exists.
This season, there is about 1 big chance for every 5 shots in the box. For Arsenal, that number is 3.1, easily the worst in the league (the Spurs are next which is unsurprising). I think your strike rate is uncovering the early season errors that Arsenal has made.
It would account for defensive errors. It's based on how many passess a team needs to make in the final third to create a shot against you. If you slip in possession, like Vermaelen did against Nor, then they get a free shot if you like, didn't need to make any passes at all. It also speaks for the style of play a team has though, if you sit back and defend then team's will get a lot of possession in your final 3rd. If they can work enough shots then they'll score.