GW 13 Score Predictions

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GW 13 Score Predictions

El Traca
Decided to post my score predictions for the upcoming GW, just in case I will not be able to update my model & make any alterations before the deadline.

Sunderland 0 - 0 WBA
Wigan 1 - 0 Reading
Everton 3 - 0 Norwich
Man Utd 4 - 0 QPR
Stoke 0 - 1 Fulham
Villa 1 - 2 Arsenal
Swans 1 - 1 Liv'pool
Soton 1 - 1 Newcastle
Spurs 1 - 0 WHU
Chelsea 2 - 1 Man City

Anybody still fancy joining in the score league thing? it's getting competitive there
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

SuperGrover
Here are my predicted scores.

SUN 0.89 - 0.98 WBA
WIG 2.08 - 0.85 RDG
EVE 2.93 - 0.98 NOR
MUN 3.06 - 0.74 QPR
STO 1.72 - 1.02 FUL
AVL 1.21 - 1.18 ARS
SWA 1.48 - 1.17 LIV
SOT 1.89 - 1.19 NEW
TOT 1.80 - 0.81 WHU
CHE 1.37 - 1.33 MCI

Lots of teams predicted between 1 and 0.8 teetering on the edge of a shutout or a single goal scored.  Everton and Man U. looks like the clear big scorers with Wigan possibly good for a couple against a porous Reading side.
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

AA23
How did Everton perform in the game Fellaini didn't play before? I'm wondering if his absence meant the chances were spread, or the chances didn't actually happen.
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

@shots_on_target
Administrator
AA23 wrote
How did Everton perform in the game Fellaini didn't play before? I'm wondering if his absence meant the chances were spread, or the chances didn't actually happen.
Not too well...
http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/2012/10/gw8-match-centre_4529.html
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

@shots_on_target
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Missing Mirallas too.
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

SuperGrover
And played the last 30 minutes with only 10 men after Pienaar got sent off.  They still got 16 total shots and 10 in the box.  

Having watched Everton a ton, I can say the Fellaini is important, but they are still an elite attacking squad without him.  If they can get Mirallas back I wouldn't worry too much.  That looks like a possibility.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story/_/id/1225629/everton-handed-kevin-mirallas-injury-boost?cc=5901

Even without Mirallas they have to be considered one of the top 5 options this week.
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

@shots_on_target
Administrator
Fair point about the red card.  Don't see Everton having much trouble against Norwich.

Here are my predictions

EVE 2.6 1.0 NOR  2-0
MUN 2.3 0.8 QPR 2-0
AVL 2.2 0.9 ARS 2-1 (blimey)
SWA 1.6 2.2 LIV 1-2
STO 0.9 0.9 FUL 1-1
SOU 0.9 1.7 NEW 0-1
TOT 1.3 1.4 WBA 1-1
CHE 2.6 2.5 MCI 2-2
WIG 0.9 1.7 RDG 0-1 (blimey also)
SUN 0.2 1.5 WBA 0-1  (slight blime)

I've incorporated a little bit of the StrikeRate parameter for this to bias the models goal conversion, would have had 8 0ut of 10 results last week if used it, so here goes.  This StrikeRate is what gives Villa the win over Arsenal - ability to hit Arsenal very direct.

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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

SuperGrover
So you are saying Arsenal's strike rate against is pretty high?  I am guessing that is due to an inordinate number of defensive errors this season.  Opta has them with the highest number of defensive errors and errors leading to goal.  It also shows in the number of Big Chances allowed per shot in box.  Typically there is a correlation between shots in the box and big chances.  It's not a great one, but the scatter plot certainly implies a relationship exists.

This season, there is about 1 big chance for every 5 shots in the box.  For Arsenal, that number is 3.1, easily the worst in the league (the Spurs are next which is unsurprising).  I think your strike rate is uncovering the early season errors that Arsenal has made.
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

SuperGrover
Also should note Wigan is 3rd from the worst in that metric which might explain that prediction as well.
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

@shots_on_target
Administrator
It would account for defensive errors.  It's based on how many passess a team needs to make in the final third to create a shot against you.  If you slip in possession, like Vermaelen did against Nor, then they get a free shot if you like, didn't need to make any passes at all.  It also speaks for the style of play a team has though, if you sit back and defend then team's will get a lot of possession in your final 3rd.  If they can work enough shots then they'll score.
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Re: GW 13 Score Predictions

El Traca
Well, I've updated my model with last week data (haven't changed the equations at all), it seems that it really likes a lot of draws:

Sun 0 - 1 WBA
Wig 2 - 0 Rdg
Eve 2 - 1 Nor
Utd 3 - 0 QPR
Stoke 1 - 1 Ful
Villa 1 - 1 Ars
Swans 1 - 1 Liv
Sot 1 - 1 New
Tot 1 - 0 WHU
Chelsea 1- 1 City