GW 15 Predictions

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GW 15 Predictions

SuperGrover
Mine are already done.  A few comments on this weeks:

1.  At some point Everton's statistical dominance is going to result in victories, right?  It's difficult to get 9 shots on target and score only one goal.  Again, they out SOT their opponent (9 to 3) and create more Big Chances (1 to 0) but manage to fail to capitalize.  I am sticking with these guys including Baines.

2.  Norwich was impressive again defensively.  Their 6 week form has them as the third best defense in the league.  If Bunn is locked in he now represents a very attractive budget keeper option with Rudy out for 2 months.

3.  Benitez sucks.  He is trying to mold Chelsea into something they are not.  If he wants to succeed he needs to let his three #10's run wild.  The team won at Arsenal and was tied with United at home before the double red cards...why blow it up?  A nil-nil draw at home against Fulham is not an accomplishment with that talent.  I am selling Mata this week and probably scrapping my plans to bring him back.

4.  Swansea has regained their legs and look frisky again.  Their defense has been solid and Davies represents a nice budget rotation option.  You could do much worse than a rotation among Norwich, Stoke and Swansea defenders.

5.  MCI is averaging allowing only 2.5 shots on target against them all season.  Seems like you have to bite the bullet and go with Nastasic or Zabaletta.

GW 15 Score predictions:

WHM 1.14 - CHE 1.14 (looks like a goalless draw to me)
ARS 2.25 - SWA 0.87
FUL 2.24 - TOT 1.06
LIV 2.16 - SOT 0.72
MCI 2.49 - EVE 0.70 (City dominates my ratings...Everton is now 3rd yet predicted to lose by 1.79 goals!  City is good)
QPR 1.47 - AVL 0.89
WBA 1.37 - STO 0.86
RDG 0.98 - MUN 1.87
NOR 1.75 - SUN 0.64
NEW 2.29 - WIG 1.16
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Re: GW 15 Predictions

El Traca
Well Grover, back to back win for you eh?? well done ....

And some responds to your points:

- Everton is truly baffling me, they should be winning games (and keeping cleansheets) more than what they've managed. Baines is still good, Fellaini is a monster, & with Mirallas coming back even with their seemingly difficult upcoming fixtures this team should still be a source for good investment right???. Perhaps, the problem is with several off form players, e.g., Jelavic & Pienaar? but they seem to be lacking in alternatives (where's that statistical anomaly Anichebe?). I'll probably be sticking with Baines too.

- Norwich is solid and so too, perhaps, Villa. I'm thinking of replacing a goalkeeper and a defender to options from either team.

- I agree with you on Chelsea, will be a bore watching them from now on, offensively turning to be into a no go area, unfortunately their defenders are just too expensive compared to other elite options. Barring catastrophic loss of defensive forms, this team should sleep-walk into the 3rd position.

Here's my predictions for this weekend, had a bit of a stinker, hopefully will get back on the track (otherwise I'll have to consider making changes to the model, which, at the moment, I'm just too lazy to do):
WHU 0 - 1 CHE (19%)
ARS 2 - 0 SWA (13%)
MCI 1 - 1 EVE (10%)
FUL 1 - 1 TOT (12%)
QPR 0 - 0 AVL (21%)
WBA 0 - 0 STO (26%)
LIV 1 - 0 SOT (16%)
RDG 0 - 1 MUN (18%)
NOR 0 - 0 SUN (28%)
NEW 1 - 0 WIG (16%)



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Re: GW 15 Predictions

SuperGrover
In reply to this post by SuperGrover
Playing around with some crude ZIP probabilities.  Here's the most likely scores with probabilities:

WHM 1 - CHE 1 (12.78%)
ARS 2 - SWA 0 (11.30%)
FUL 2 - TOT 1 (9.42%)
LIV 2 - SOT 0 (13.16%)
MCI 2 - EVE 0 (12.79%)
QPR 1 - AVL 0 (13.99%)
WBA 1 - STO 0 (14.83%)
RDG 0 - MUN 1 (10.96%)
NOR 1 - SUN 0 (16.05%)
NEW 2 - WIG 1 (9.12%)

Not sure what I think of these percentages.  I will tell you one thing, if these were accurate you should bet on the under in nearly every game!