GW12 Captain Rankings

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GW12 Captain Rankings

@shots_on_target
Administrator
These are the provisional captain rankings for GW12 based wholly on a the each fixture and opponent, the player's % share of SiB & SoT, and the player's expected conversion rate.


Some comments from me:  Taarabt up there is an obvious point of comment.  His conversion rate in my model is actual 25%, so below average, but he still gets in their above likes of Aguero due to Southampton's poor away from.  Holt?  My model does not expect UTD to keep a clean sheet and therefore reckons Holt is in for a goal.  RVP ... my model actuall rates the Norwich defense, not for a clean sheet but not for a Utd landlside either.

To AA23, and all:

Can you comment and advise on where you think the data could be misleading using your expert opinion.  My model will not factor in things like missing a key player on either team, team's style of play versus each other, team/players very recent form, etc. etc.  Things you and I can take from watching the actual games.

I will collate any opinion and add this as "expert opinion" to my weekly captain rankings on the site.  Cheers for any feedback.
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Re: GW12 Captain Rankings

High As A Kuyt
The rankings give a pretty helpful indication, as they're based on the season to date they obviously don't always match short term form, e.g. Ba ahead of Aguero on the rankings this week and Giroud not on it, while Zabaleta/Zamora/Holt make it.

Overall, I find the rankings you do up and Chris Glover's very helpful in making informative decisions. Perhaps in exceptional cases, you could put a small note next to some players such as Lukaku who always looks great statistically, but rotated too often or Aguero, who has not hit the heights yet, but this week against Aston Villa, if he plays he brings allot of upside as a captaincy choice, more so then Ba and Taarabt ahead of him.
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Re: GW12 Captain Rankings

SuperGrover
In reply to this post by @shots_on_target
I like the rankings as they do a good job of summarizing player contribution and fixture strength in a single place.  I have referenced the team pages multiple times and used it to drive a purchase or two along the way.

As for this week, I have Suarez and Berbatov right at the top.  I do worry somewhat about Berb's endurance as he has never been known for stamina and his age isn't helping things.  Still though everything runs through him and when it doesn't he lets his teammates know about it!

Say what you want about him, Suarez is a non-stop worker and stamina machine.  Tough to see Liverpool scoring and it not involving the Uruguayian.  I don't think you can go wrong with either pick and I currently have them as Captain and Vice (Suarez is my current captain).

I wouldn't worry about Taarabt showing up.  The guy is averaging over 4 shots per 90 and 2.8 CC per 90.  Yeah he is wasteful, but he is also supremely talented.  If he continues to get run he will eventually put a couple through.  No reason not to expect it against a pretty bad Saints defense.

I agree on Norwich.  I have Man U.  scoring just 1.93 goals this week.  While that is a pretty stout figure, given the various options in the attack I see no reason not to have the others in front of RVP.

Not too sure on Holt.  While he has scored a majority of Norwich's goals this year the attack has been fairly spread out recently.  Both Hoolahan and Snodgrass are options so Holt isn't the only attacking player a la Suarez.  My model has them at 1.42 goals this week, so I am a bit dubious of him that high especially since bonus points will be hard to come by unless they can somehow draw United.

Speaking of the last point, do you try and project bonus points at all?  While I believe it's a fools game most of the time, I do think it is important to not pick players as captains when they are most likely to be on the losing side.  If Man U. beats Norwich as expected, Holt would be hard pressed to get even a single bonus point given how many attacking players for Man U. may be involved.  Something to consider.

My personal rankings go something like this:

Suarez
Berbatov
RVP
Ba (docked because of fitness)
Aguero (docked because of rotation threat)
Giroud (elevated due to recent form)
Fellaini (gotta have an Evertonan at Reading)
Taarabt
Holt
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Re: GW12 Captain Rankings

AA23
In reply to this post by @shots_on_target
Berbatov seems to be ahead of the field by quite a bit, but I wouldn't be rushing to give him the armband.  Although my predictions have it down as a 2-0 home win, I can see a stubborn Sunderland in this match.  He's central to the attack, so equally if I never had anyone I'd deem a better option I'd stick it on him.

I agree with SG, it's important to pick a captain who's team is going to win.  Not only does it give a better chance of bonus, it probably indicates to me that they are less likely to be wasteful i.e. shots off target in the dying minutes of the game if they see a small gap to get the shot off.

Arsenal/Spurs - Liverpool/Wigan - Newcastle/Swansea - QPR/Southampton - Reading/Everton

These are the games that I think might throw up the highest scorer of the gameweek.  Five games is a lot to focus on, but it's half of them so it's a start.

Arsenal/Spurs - I'm expecting at least 3 goals out this match, but predicting who's going to score them is difficult.  My gut feeling is an Arsenal win with the pick of the match being Giroud.

Liverpool/Wigan - A Liverpool win is surely on the cards here and if anyone is going to score it has to be Suarez.  A sneaky feeling that Gerrard posts a good score, but Suarez will lead the attack.  There should be no reservations over captaining Suarez here.

Newcastle/Swansea - Newcastle may not be going into this one with good form, but I'm expecting them to net twice here.  I'd be looking to Ba, but not totally writing off Cisse stealing his points.

QPR/Southampton - Your rankings show Taarabt and if he can post the stats he's been posting then I'd possibly agree.  I wouldn't be comfortable captaining anyone here, but Taarabt, Cisse, Ramirez or Lambert could be unfashionable choices that rack up some additional points.  

Reading/Everton - Jelavic had a cracking end to last season.  I think I captained him for most of the run in and he repaid me.  Everton have been much better this season, with others in the team standing up to be counted.  I still like Jelavic though, and will probably own him at one point during the season.  I like his chances here and personally rate him highly as a captain choice this week.  I don't see Fellaini as a valid captain choice every few weeks, but the data shows he could be.  I prefer Jelavic in this tie as I don't see Everton having any problems breaking down Reading and getting good service to the striker.

My top 5 captain ranks would be as follows:

1. Suarez (Likely home win)
2. Jelavic (Likely away win)
3. Ba (Likely home win)
4. Giroud (Difficult to call, but likely to be involved a lot)
5. Gerrard (Likely home win)

Wildcard picks: Taarabt, Ramirez and Oscar
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Re: GW12 Captain Rankings

@shots_on_target
Administrator
Thanks everyone.  Really insightful.  Lsat season I would use Chris' captain picks and team rankings to edge me on close decisions on my team.  

First thing I note is Bonus Pts.  They are inlcuded at 1.5 pts per goal scored regardless of win/lose.  This should be quite easy to adjust in my model and I'll do that sooon.

I agree with Berbs and Sunderland.  I have it in my head that Sunderland will put up a fight here.  I don't know why.  Is Fulham's attack too average to beat a defensive team?  Are they better against attacking teams?  It feels possible, so worth further investigation.  I'm also nervous about Ba,  Newcastle's form is not great going forward. My view is that Suarez is the top pick this week.  He was the clear top pick against Reading a few weeks ago too - and got an assist.

I feel the FPL captain pick probably needs a whole website of it's own!
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Re: GW12 Captain Rankings

@shots_on_target
Administrator
I've put in a bit of work this week on updating my mode with a few important changes.  Updated Capt Picks are a better reflection now of the views in this thread.  Thanks for the contributions.  I will post my picks for next week Mon / Tues and hope for more excellent feedback.  Thanks again.