Well, your raw totals were rather good last GW

!

And yes, those are using Poisson for now. Though will probably be looking to fit negative binomial distribution to my model as well, just to try it out, that is if I can somehow manage to find a way to roughly estimate the goal conversion rate for each team within a particular match and if I find the time and energy to do it (highly unlikely nearing the end of the year!). For the time being, esp as I'm only starting with this score prediction malarkey, I'm quite content with using Poisson and will first look at whether introducing arbitrary weighting factors and similar small alterations to the equation can induce enough bias in the model to overcome the shortcomings of the distribution (instead of using long winded mind boggling algorithms

).