GW14 predictions

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GW14 predictions

@shots_on_target
Administrator
Bit of a crapper last week.  Worst part - made a cockup in my model last min.  NVM.

Only one of these I am shakey on is EVE/ARS.  Could be anything.

SUN  1-1 QPR
AVL 2 - 0 RDG
EVE 2- 1 ARS  
CHE 2-1 FUL
SOT 2-0 NOR
STO 1-0 NEW
TOT 1-1 LIV
SWA 1-1 WBA
WIG 0-2 MCI
MUN 3-0 WHM





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Re: GW14 predictions

SuperGrover
My predictions as posted on front page.

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Re: GW14 predictions

El Traca
Made a small change in my model, now using the league median value of home and away goal/SOT instead of average value and adding a bit of weighting factor for the past 5 GW results. The scores:

SUN 1 - 0 QPR (24%)
AVL 1 - 1 RDG (17%)
SWA 1 - 1 WBA (10%)
TOT 1 - 1 LIV (12%)
CHE 1 - 2 FUL (10%)
EVE 1 - 0 ARS (17%)
WIG 0 - 2 MCI (17%)
MUN 2 - 0 WHU (12%)




 
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Re: GW14 predictions

El Traca
Oops for got to put these:
SOT 1 - 0 NOR (23%)
STO 1 - 0 NEW (22%)
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Re: GW14 predictions

SuperGrover
In reply to this post by El Traca
What are the percentages for again?
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Re: GW14 predictions

El Traca
The percentages are basically the score probabilities. My model, for instance, calculates that Fulham has a 45% chance to win against Chelsea, but the probable scorelines are quite evenly distributed, the biggest being 2 -1 for Fulham at 10% (although it also predicts 1 - 1 at 10%). Rather unexpected I must say, I guess Chelsea's performance against Man City really weighed them down here.  
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Re: GW14 predictions

SuperGrover
Gotcha.  I assume you are using Poisson probabilities there?  I have yet to do this preferring raw totals at the moment.
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Re: GW14 predictions

El Traca
Well, your raw totals were rather good last GW  !

And yes, those are using Poisson for now. Though will probably be looking to fit negative binomial distribution to my model as well, just to try it out, that is if I can somehow manage to find a way to roughly estimate the goal conversion rate for each team within a particular match and if I find the time and energy to do it (highly unlikely nearing the end of the year!). For the time being, esp as I'm only starting with this score prediction malarkey, I'm quite content with using Poisson and will first look at whether introducing arbitrary weighting factors and similar small alterations to the equation can induce enough bias in the model to overcome the shortcomings of the distribution (instead of using long winded mind boggling algorithms ).
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Re: GW14 predictions

SuperGrover
Ha.  Are you using zero-inflated Poisson?
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Re: GW14 predictions

El Traca
Nope, no can do ZIP model with SPSS (the same with negative binomial models as far as I know), I can use other softwares for that, but in the meantime will be relying on good' ol Poisson regression. You're planning to do ZIP with R?
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Re: GW14 predictions

SuperGrover
Well, yes, I am planning on it, but considering that I have yet to even load R that might be a bit away!