Figured I would start the fun. Since my model is not impacted by individual players yet, nothing is going to change between now and next Saturday.
TOT 1.85 / che 1.08
FUL 2.60 / avl 0.80
LIV 3.40 / rdg 0.69
MUN 1.80 / sto 0.68
SWA 2.80 / wig 1.26
WBA 0.92 / mci 1.56
WHM 2.20 / sou 1.14
NOR 1.37 / ars 1.88
SUN 0.73 / new 0.69
QPR 2.05 / eve 1.55
Thoughts on these predictions:
1. While I do think Chelsea is a bit overrated (I think they are no better than the 3rd best team in the league behind MCI and ARS), I am not sure I am too comfortable with the Spurs being 0.75 goals of a favorite, even at home. I feel Chelsea's projection should be closer to 1.5.
2. I love, love, love Fulham this week, presuming Berb is healthy. They will destroy Villa.
3. This is the kind of game Liverpool should dominate. With that said, I wouldn't be shocker to see them with 25 total shots, 18 in the box and 4 on target (in a 1-1 draw). Still thought Reading will be lucky to score and keep Liverpool under 3.
4. I see Man U winning 2-0 unless Crouch/Walters can pull something out of a hat (e.g., MCI game and the handball first touch). I know Stoke's d is good, but Man U at home is going to dominate the ball...at some point, the will get a couple past Begovich.
5. Swansea is probably a bit overrated by my model right now as this looks like a 2-2 game to me. Not sure Swansea can keep Kone and DiSanto from scoring twice.
6. I can see a 1-1 tie for WBA against City. I could also see a 2-0 City win.
7. I think Southie scores twice in this one. The question is, does Ham score 3 times? They will miss Vaz Te's energy. Carroll looked like a monster last week, but I think Southie would struggle more with Vaz Te's creativity and pace than Carroll's physicality. We will see.
Question for me is do I think Lambert scores? I need to decide among 2 of Toure, Lambert and Sterling. Currently leaning towards Lambert and Sterling.
8. Norwich isn't as bad as they've played. They really aren't. However, if Snodgrass is out and they continue the keystone cops routine in the backline I can easily see another 3, 4 or even 5 goal conceded week for Norwich. I do think they score in this one, but don't see how they can win in their current form.
9. Sunderland and Newcastle is going to be an awful game to watch. I would be shocked to see more than a goal scored on either side.
10. My model loves QPR, but I have not been impressed with them in my viewings. Still though, they did outshoot SWA 21-13 while losing 5-0, had 11 shots and 4 on target at MCI, played even with Chelsea in all aspects of the game, and managed 4 shots on target against the Spurs. This team clearly has some spunk, but I am not sure I can see how they are favored against Everton, even at home. With that said, Everton's D has been shaky lately. I see another 2-2 score myself, so the model isn't that far off IMO.
These are my predictions so far, the last two being different winners than SuperGrover. I'm going to add my own "feeling" about the games when it comes to either rounding up or down. Not very sound, but that way I can get the range and then add my own feel as to how I think the data over or underestimates the predictions.
TOT 1.9 / che 1.0 (2-1)
FUL 2.4 / avl 1.1 (2-1)
LIV 1.7 / rdg 0.8 (2-0)
MUN 1.9 / sto 1.1 (2-1)
SWA 2.1 / wig 0.9 (2-1)
WBA 1.0 / mci 2.1 (1-2)
WHM 1.8 / sou 1.2 (1-1)
NOR 1.3 / ars 1.5 (1-2)
SUN 0.3 / new 1.2 (0-1)
QPR 1.2 / eve 2.5 (1-2)
I'm not that pleased with the amount of 2-1's. Arsenal and Liverpool seem the sides that are most likely underestimated. I'm comfortable with TOT, FUL, WBA, WHM, SUN games but the rest feel a bit off.
Been a bit wayliad these last few days, both my boys have had bad colds. And me too. Exhausting!
Anyway predictions, I've used my "advanced model" here. (Avg goals in brackets, most likely outcome in bold (using Poisson dist.)
1. TOT (1.3) 1-0 CHE (0.9)
2. QPR (0.9) 0-1 EVE (1.7)
3. NOR (1.2) 1-1 ARS (1.5)
4. FUL (1.9) 1-0 AVL (0.9)
5. LIV (2.5) 2-0 RDG (0.6)
6. WBA (0.9) 0-1 MCI (1.3)
7. MUN (1.6) 1-0 STO (0.7)
edit: 8. WHM (2.7) 2-1 SOT 1.0
9. SUN (1.2) 1-0 NEW (0.8)
10. SWA (1.5) 1-0 WIG (0.9)
Clean Sheet Ranking: 55% Liverpool
45% Sunderand, City, Everton
To Score Two or more: 75% West Ham (edit) 71% Liverpool
1. Lots of 1-0's! Poisson distribution does not favour high scores it seems. Let's be honest most games in the league over a season total just 1 to 2 goals.
2. My model does not like QPR !
3. For this model I've used a combo of SoT, Shots, Shots in box data to get the average goals in parenthesis and then poission distributionto get the most probable score line. the most probablie result is usually something like 10-20% probable. Adding the "Clean Sheet Ranking" and "Score Two or More" adds some useful context I think. EG Everton, average goals 1.7 still has most probable results as one goal, but adding up chance of 2 goals plus chance of 3, plus 4 etc. yields over 50% probability of more than 2.
4. For all these results I've taken a combination of all last seasons's data plus all of this seasons. I altered the model back and forward to include more or less of last seasons (down to none) and the results did not vary a great deal! By 0.1-0.2 average goals. Good news I'd say.
5. Out of all these results TOT 1-0 CHE is the least likely and a 1-1 is almost as probable. The one I'm most unsure about is NOR 1-1 ARS, like you guys I feel Arsenal's data away from home, or perhaps Norwich have been better than we all think.
Also meant to mention, the reason my model likes QPR so much is because it thinks they have played the 3rd most difficult defensive schedule (opponent's attacking) and 3rd most difficult attacking schedule (opponent's defensive). Accordingly, I have them with the second toughest total schedule strength so far behind only Southampton.
My SOS rankings:
It's probably no surprise then to see me value QPR, LIV, and NOR a bit higher than you guys as I have a feeling I am factoring in schedule strength a bit more than you are.
Nolan would not be the worst choice ever this week for a flair captaincy choice. Good record at home, great fixture. Only problem is that he is fairly one dimensional in FPL terms, it's goals or nothing.
If he scores, that of course is not a problem! I'm probably going to go along with Suarez for the armband, but him playing 90 at high altitude worries me, despite him scoring. He is a very fit player though.
I am going with Suarez too. I was hoping they would pull him after 70 or so but he was evidently the only option available. Good news is that it was a day time match as that extra 6 hours or so may have allowed him to get to Europe much earlier than the Argentine's who played at night. I could be grasping at straws though.
Reading is truly awful and it would be a shame for Suarez owners (i.e. me!) to not have him at full strength.
1. TOT (1.3) 1-0 CHE (0.9) 4-2
2. QPR (0.9) 0-1 EVE (1.7) 1-1
3. NOR (1.2) 1-1 ARS (1.5) 1-0
4. FUL (1.9) 1-0 AVL (0.9) 1-0
5. LIV (2.5) 2-0 RDG (0.6) 1-0
6. WBA (0.9) 0-1 MCI (1.3) 1-2
7. MUN (1.6) 1-0 STO (0.7) 4-2
8. WHM (2.7) 2-1 SOT (1.0) 4-1
9. SUN (1.2) 1-0 NEW (0.8) 1-1
10. SWA (1.5) 1-0 WIG (0.9) 2-1
Not a million miles off. My largeet goal difference (WHM/SOT) proved to be correct. Don't think anyone could've predicted the two 4-2 games. Biggest err here imo is over estimating Everton - they missed Fellaini and did nowhere bear enough (3 SoT) to warrant a 1.7 goal forecast. Fulham also stuttered but I think that's more becasue Villa have improved since the opening games.